(U-WIRE) MISSOULA, Mont. - Fidel Castro announced his resignation as president of Cuba on Tuesday, ending one of the longest tenures of a communist head of state.

But Castro's resignation may not mean significant changes for Cuba in the near future, said Paul Haber, a University of Montana political science professor.

"It makes sense (Castro's resignation) happened at this time because the elections were coming around," Haber said. "How much it changes is the question."

According to the Cuban constitution, the Parliament will choose a 31-member council of state on Sunday which will in turn choose Cuba's next president. Fidel's brother, Raul Castro, is in a strong position to be the next leader of Cuba, Haber said.

But as long as Fidel is alive and coherent, he will continue to pull the strings behind Cuba's political decisions, Haber said.

"Things don't happen in Cuba that Fidel doesn't want to," Haber said.

Julio Morales, a native of Cuba and now a Missoula lawyer, agreed that Fidel would still exert a heavy hand in Cuba's affairs. Morales lived in Cuba until 1960, when he left at the age of 13. He spent two years there under Castro's rule.

"I don't think much is going to change after his resignation," he said.

Therefore, the real changes for Cuba may come after the Castro’s fade from the political scene, he said. This may come sooner then later in light of Fidel's ill health and Raul's advancing age.

If new leadership came to Cuba, the country then may have to deal with challenges stemming from a weakened economy and tense relations with the U.S., Haber said.

"It seems unlikely that Cuba would move in a significantly new direction unless the U.S. changes (its position)," he said. With the U.S. presidential election around the corner, those changes could occur under a new administration, Haber said, but that is largely dependent on which candidate becomes president.

Things won't change if John McCain becomes the next president, as his animosity toward Cuba is widely known, Haber said. And because Bill Clinton did not pursue relations with Cuba during his time in office, Haber doubts that Hillary Clinton will be very concerned about the issue either.

However, Barack Obama is a "great unknown" in his attitude towards Cuba, Haber contends.

But there is a huge political risk behind pursuing diplomatic relations with Cuba that Haber foresees few presidents are willing to face.

The only certain thing for Cuba is a new name under the presidential title. And Fidel Castro's influence from behind the scenes is yet to be seen.

"The Cuban-American community is not monolithic concerning the fuse on U.S.-Cuban relations," Haber said. "However, the anti-Fidel Castro attitude still dominates."

"Someday, the change (in Cuba) will be obvious," Morales said. “And there will be free elections and other political shifts for the island.”

"For now, I'm not going to hold my breath," he said.

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