Archived: Jan 22, 2008

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Mike N Mike’s NCAA Men’s Basketball Bubble Watch

By Mike Kennedy and Mike McMillan

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Here are Mike N Mike’s conference champions, followed by teams who still have work to do in order to either win their conference championships or to earn an at-large bid.

Week 1 (Jan. 21-Jan 27)

Every year the NCAA Tournament committee has arguably the hardest job in all of sports: selecting the 65 teams that get to play for the honor of being the National Champions.

We know that there are eight weeks before Selection Sunday, but we thought we would prepare you for that day by showing you the teams that have demonstrated enough potential to earn their way into the tournament, and which teams still have work to do.

The major conferences are possibly the hardest to pick. This is because there are 32 automatic bids for teams who win their conference titles – minus the Ivy League where the automatic bid is given to the regular season champion – and the rest of the 65 are picked at large. The big conferences usually have anywhere from three to eight teams that are entered into the tournament, and that is where it gets hard.

Here are Mike N Mike’s conference champions, followed by teams who still have work to do in order to either win their conference championships or to earn an at-large bid. Each week we will update this list to keep you at the top of your college hoops game.

Major conferences: These are the conferences that make up the majority of the at-large bids. The teams that will earn those will vary throughout the season. Here are Mike N Mike’s picks so far this season.

ACC:

Mike N Mike’s pick: UNC, Duke, The U, Clemson
Work to do: All but GT: Many say this is a down year for the ACC, but competition within the conference is as high as ever. Look for late breaks by Virginia, BC, NC St. and Florida St. towards the end of the season; the ACC could possibly send six teams into the tournament.

Big Ten:

M.N.M.: Michigan St., Indiana, Wisconsin
Work to do: Minnesota, Purdue, Ohio St.: Tubby Smith has given the Gophers a new look. That team could make a late run, while Purdue is a hot-shooting three-point threat that could take down some big names. Ohio St. still has a lot to prove after all that Thad Matta lost after last year’s championship run. Right now we have the Big 10 sending only four teams into the tournament.

Big East:

M.N.M.: Pitt, Georgetown, Marquette, Notre Dame
Work to do: Villanova, Providence, UConn, Syracuse, West Virginia, Louisville: The Big East is just that this year, BIG. That being said, there are a couple of small teams that could make a run at the tournament. Louisville and ‘Nova are the favorites but ‘Cuse, WV, UConn and even Providence could earn a surprise bid.

Big 12:

M.N.M.: Texas, Kansas, Texas A&M
Work to do: Baylor, Oklahoma, Kansas St.: We don’t see more than four teams coming out of the Big 12 this year. Baylor is proving itself each day, especially after a win over Oklahoma St. Beasley could make a case for Kansas St., but look for Baylor to hold the third spot, with A&M beating out KSU for the fourth spot. OK has the most work to do out of the group after a disappointing loss to Kansas.

SEC:

M.N.M.: Tennessee, Vanderbilt, Mississippi St.
Work to do: Florida, Arkansas, Ole Miss: The SEC is a little abnormal this season with Vandy and Tennessee making huge impact and MSU taking its first loss almost halfway through the season. Look for the Gators, if they can beat Ole Miss, Vandy or Tenn, and Ole Miss to make it to the tourney via at-large bids or by making a strong run in the conference tourney.

Pac-10:

M.N.M.: UCLA, Washington St., Oregon, Stanford
Work to do: USC, Arizona, Arizona St., Cal: What is there to say about the Pac-10? Well, all but one team could make it into the tournament. We expect to see the power of the West dominate the at-large bids with eight. Unless Cal or ASU stumbles down the stretch, the Pac-10 should have two more bids than any other conference. USC is young, but they can make a run. Arizona is the sleeper of the West, and Budinger and Bayless can take anyone.

A-10

M.N.M.: Xavier, Rhode Island, Dayton
Work to do: UMass, St. Joe’s: RIU needs to keep away from bad losses, but we see the A-10 getting only three teams, and two if any of those locks have bad losses. UMass would be next on the list if they take three of the four against Xavier, Dayton and RIU twice.

Two-team conferences: These conferences will have two teams in the tournament, though as the season progresses they could have more or less.

C-USA

M.N.M.: Memphis
Work to do: Houston and UTEP: Both teams sit with 11 wins, but the fact is that only one needs to beat Memphis in order to prove that they can take the conference championship.

Horizon

M.N.M.: Butler
Work to do: Rest of the conference: The only teams in the Horizon that are out of it are Detroit and Loyola. With seven teams above .500, the conference schedule becomes a huge part of who will come out on top of the conference championship. If Butler repeats last year’s play, the Horizon could have two teams in the big dance. Mike N Mike’s pick: UW-Milwaukee, Valparaiso or Cleveland State.

Missouri Valley

M.N.M.: Drake
Work to do: Creighton, Illinois St.: I know, I know. ISU has done more than enough to get recognition, but the Redbirds still have work to do to prove that they can make their first tournament appearance since 1998, when they were a nine-seed. After a win at UNI, Creighton looks hot enough to make an impact in the MVC. Mike N Mike’s Pick: Creighton.

Mountain West

M.N.M.: BYU
Work to do: New Mexico, San Diego St.: The Lobos have a solid squad. If they can knock down BYU, they may have a chance at a conference championship, sending BYU in on an at-large. The Aztecs have to go deep in the conference tourney and need to stray away from bad losses as they face no top-25 teams the rest of the season.

West Coast

M.N.M.: St. Mary’s
Work to do: Gonzaga: The Zags need to finish strong and beat Memphis or St. Mary’s twice in order to take an at-large bid if they can’t take the conference championship from St. Mary’s. If Gonzaga splits with St. Mary’s but takes the game at Memphis, the Zags and Gaels will both dance.

One team conferences: These are the teams that will win their conference titles and be the only team in the tournament from their respected conferences.
America East: UMBC
A-Sun: Belmont
Big Sky: Northern Arizona
Big South: UNC-Asheville
Big West: Cal St. Northridge
Colonial: Virginia Commonwealth
Ivy: Brown
Metro Atlantic: Niagara
Mid-American: Akron
Mid-East: Hampton
Northeast: Robert Morris
Ohio Valley: Austin Peay
Patriot: Holy Cross
Southwestern: Arkansas-Pine Bluff
Southland: Sam Houston St.
Southern: Chattanooga
Summit: Oral Roberts
Sun Belt: South Alabama
Western: Nevada

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