Obama vs. Giuliani?
Predicting the presidential primary races
By Amanda Moucha
E-mail
Print- Share on Facebook
-
Seed Newsvine
- Text size:
Clinton is a left-leaning female who arouses animosity, Obama is a bit too young and Gore is spending most of his time reinventing himself and winning Nobel Prizes. Overall, Obama gets the Democratic nomination.
It’s about that time again. Every New Year, people around the world make resolutions to improve themselves. Usually, extra time on the treadmill or increased studying doesn’t exactly change society. However, every four years, a few people make resolutions that do dramatically influence the world.
The people who decide to run for president in 2008 will leave an enormous footprint in national and world politics if they win control of the White House.
The race for the 2008 Republican and Democratic presidential nominations is finally about to get serious. After more than a year of campaigning, the first caucus and primary are only a month away.
The Iowa caucuses are set for Jan. 3, 2008, shortly followed by the New Hampshire primary on Jan. 8. There seems to have been over 10,000 debates in the past year, and the polls have swung back and forth faster than the stock market.
While my guess is as good as any, let us get the ball rolling with the Democrats. I am predicting Barack Obama will win the Iowa caucus, and I also predict that it won’t even be close.
However, Hillary Clinton will win the New Hampshire primary by a landslide.
For Obama, winning Iowa is crucial. Coming in second place would make an Obama nomination difficult to envision, and anything else would make it nearly impossible.
Clinton’s double-digit lead in New Hampshire allows her to breathe a bit easier. If she had a strong win in Iowa, which is doubtful because the favorite never wins (just ask Howard Dean,) she would seal the deal as the Democratic nominee and would sail though New Hampshire and the following primaries.
However, if Obama wins Iowa, as I predict he will, it could generate huge momentum and bring him within striking distance of Clinton in New Hampshire.
On the Republican side, Mitt Romney will narrowly win against Mike Huckabee in Iowa. Romney has tremendous financial resources and has put so much into infrastructure to deliver his supporters to the polls.
While Huckabee dramatically trails Romney in money and more importantly organization, the future of Huckabee’s bid relies on an Iowa win. Without the win, his momentum will die. Giuliani will pull in a respectable third.
If beat in Iowa, Romney would still be able to compete in New Hampshire, where he leads in polls and has a strong campaign, but a loss would be a severe setback.
As far as New Hampshire goes, Giuliani has the win. Romney has been ahead consistently in the polls, but his influence is slowly deteriorating.
Giuliani is the most electable of the Republican candidates, which would explain why he is ahead in the opinion polls. He’s benefiting from strong support in the north, but struggles to keep his home state. He’ll win New Hampshire, but will face challenges winning the Midwest.
All said and done, I also predict the roles of the Iowa caucuses and the New Hampshire primary will be much less significant in selecting the future president.
Eventually common sense will transcend tradition, and the influence over presidential choices that New Hampshire and Iowa have held hostage for years will diminish to fit their physical sizes, demographics and population.
The leading three Democratic candidates are Clinton, Obama and Gore. All three have solid name recognition, plenty of money with the exclusion of Obama, and plenty of political experience. However, each has major problems to overcome.
Clinton is a left-leaning female who arouses animosity, Obama is a bit too young and Gore is spending most of his time reinventing himself and winning Nobel Prizes, and technically isn’t even a candidate. Overall, Obama gets the Democratic nomination.
For the Republicans, the top three candidates are John McCain, Mitt Romney and Rudy Giuliani. These three men hold some serious power.
Despite minor flaws, (McCain consistently alienates his conservative base, Romney’s faith and immigration problems stir up fervor, and Giuliani’s marriage and relationship problems are well documented,) each has potential to be our next president. Yet Giuliani will take the win in the end.
The Democratic charge shows no signs of relenting, but as I’ve stressed before, I will cast my vote for Giuliani, and I expect him to take Washington by storm.




> Comments